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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-10 16:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 101435 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 111.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.3N 117.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 119.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.5N 121.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.7N 122.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-10 13:24:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 101124 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in organization since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development to occur, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two while the disturbance moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-10 13:17:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 101117 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elida, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system moves slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Another area of low pressure is forecast to develop well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and this system could also become a tropical depression by late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-10 10:51:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100851 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 After the earlier burst of deep convection and the development of a small 10-nmi-wide low- to mid-level eye noted in passive microwave satellite imagery, convection has waned somewhat and the eye feature has eroded in the northwestern semicircle due to entrainment of dry air, along with some modest northwesterly vertical wind shear. A 0314Z ASCAT-A overpass revealed peak winds of only 43 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 10-15 nmi. Satellite intensity estimates range from T3.5/55 kt from TAFB to T4.0/65 kt from SAB, along with a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 53 kt and an ADT estimate of 59 kt. An average of these intensity estimates, and allowing for some undersampling by the scatterometer instrument due to Elida's small RMW, supports maintaining an intensity of 55 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward or 300/13 kt. Both the forecast track and rationale remain straight-forward and basically unchanged from the previous advisory. Elida is expected to be steered west-northwestward by a deep layer ridge to the north for the next 72 hours or, followed by a westward motion on days 4 and 5 when Elida will be weakening over much cooler waters and becoming a shallower cyclone. The latest NHC track guidance remains tightly packed and, thus, the new official forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near the TVCE and NOAA-HCCA consensus track models. The brief intensity hiatus that Elida is experiencing is expected to be short-lived due to the cyclone's small RMW and the vertical shear forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt in the 12-36 hour time frame. This should allow for Elida to strengthen -- possibly even rapidly -- during the next 24 hours, followed by a leveling off in the intensity due to the cyclone moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures (SST). By 48-60 h, SSTs less than 25C and modest southwesterly vertical wind shear will combine to induce steady weakening. By 96 h or so, Elida is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, but is a little above the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.3N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 19.1N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 20.8N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.5N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 22.2N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 22.6N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0600Z 21.4N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-10 10:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 08:38:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 08:38:21 GMT
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