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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-12 19:43:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121742 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Elida, located several hundred miles southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Satellite images suggest that a better-defined low pressure area is forming about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming a little better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-12 19:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121741 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2020-08-12 16:44:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 14:44:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 14:44:19 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-12 16:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 121442 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is a little better organized than 24 h ago, with a ragged central convective feature and a curved convective band in the northwestern semicircle. However, recent scatterometer data show this has not yet resulted in strengthening, with 25-30 kt winds occuring to the north of the center. Based on the scatterometer, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion remains a little north of due west, or 280/13 kt. There is little change to the forecast philosophy or the forecast track since the last advisory. A westward motion is expected to continue through tonight due to easterly flow on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the cyclone. After that, the global models forecast a slight weakness to develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, with that motion continuing through the end of the forecast period. The new NHC forecast is just to the left of the various consensus models. The southeasterly shear that has so far prevented intensification should diminish in the next 12 h or so, which should allow the cyclone to become a tropical storm. The system should then remain in light to moderate shear through about 48 h, and the intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 50 kt during that time. Later in the forecast period, moderate to strong southwesterly shear should develop over the cyclone due to an upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. This shear should cause the system to weaken, and several of the global models forecast it to degenerate to a tropical wave before 120 h. The new intensity forecast will not call for that quick of a demise, but will show weakening due to the shear after 72 h. The new forecast, which has only minor changes from the previous forecast, is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 12.4N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 12.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 18.2N 58.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 20.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 23.5N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-12 16:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION REMAINS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 12 the center of Eleven was located near 12.4, -44.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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