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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-07-30 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 301450 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 68.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......270NE 90SE 0SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 68.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.7N 71.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N 74.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.6N 78.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.2N 79.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.0N 79.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 31.5N 79.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 68.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-30 13:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAIAS CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Jul 30 the center of Isaias was located near 17.6, -68.5 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-07-30 13:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301153 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 ...ISAIAS CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 68.5W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 68.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola later today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and approach the Northwest Bahamas or southern Florida Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall in Dominican Republic later today, with re-strengthening forecast on Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds are occuring along the southern coast of Puerto Rico. A Weatherflow station in Yabucoa Tanque de Agua reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through this morning or early afternoon. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area later this morning, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches. Puerto Rico and northern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics
2020-07-30 13:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2020 11:53:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2020 09:25:01 GMT
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-30 13:27:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 301127 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Jul 30 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about a thousand miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become a little better organized overnight. Some slight additional development is possible as it drifts northwestward during the next day or so. By Saturday, significant development is not likely while the system moves over cooler waters and into less favorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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