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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-23 19:13:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 231713 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 23 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Douglas, located over the far western portion of the basin. An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur through early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Eight Graphics
2020-07-23 16:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 14:54:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 14:54:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-23 16:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 231450 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is getting better organized, with a better-defined center located near the northeastern end of a broadly curved convective band. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 30 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the depression. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the central United States is the predominant steering influence, and the global models forecast this ridge to build during the several days. This should cause the depression to turn more westward by 48-60 h and south of west after about 72 h. The track guidance is in good agreement with that scenario, and the new NHC forecast track, which has only minor adjustments from the previous track, lies near the various consensus models. The new forecast track has the center making landfall along the Texas coast between 48-60 h. The depression is in an environment of light shear and over warm sea surface temperatures, so at least slow strengthening is expected until landfall. The new intensity forecast, which lies a little below the intensity consensus, now calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt before landfall. Data from the Hurricane Hunter will give more details on whether the structure of the cyclone has improved or not, which will be incorporated into the next forecast cycle. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch is in effect. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas Coast. These rains could result in flash flooding and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 26.3N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 26.7N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 27.4N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 27.8N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 28.0N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/1200Z 27.9N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1200Z 27.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 27.0N 103.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082020)
2020-07-23 16:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 the center of Eight was located near 26.3, -90.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 3
2020-07-23 16:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 231449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 90.7W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for portions of the Watch area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 90.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a tropical storm during the next 12 to 24 hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the depression. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday night. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches through Monday along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas Coast, and inland through south-central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This rain may result in flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor flooding across the west-central Gulf Coast and into portions of south Texas. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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