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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 9A
2020-07-24 01:23:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 232323 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 800 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO STILL HEADING DUE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 49.9W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 49.9 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean Sea Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea. Gonzalo is a compact tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the respective watch areas on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-24 01:18:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 232318 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Jul 23 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Douglas, located over the far western portion of the basin. An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur through early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eight Graphics
2020-07-23 22:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 20:49:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 20:49:02 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-23 22:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 232047 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression continues to become better organized, with the center near the eastern edge of a large and broadly curved convective area, with a second curved band to the east. Several subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have increased to 35 kt since the last advisory. However, surface observations, scatterometer data, and data from an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission show a large area of 25-30 kt winds south and east of the center, and no 35-kt winds to justify an upgrade at this time. Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this evening, and the current expectation is that they will find it is a tropical storm. The center meandered a bit today, possibly due to reformation. However, the system now seems to have resumed a west-northwestward motion of 285/7 kt. A mid-level ridge over the central United States is the predominant steering influence, and the global models forecast this ridge to build somewhat during the next several days. This should cause the depression to turn westward by 36-48 h and south of west after about 60 h. The track guidance remains in good agreement with that scenario, although there has been a slight southward shift in the guidance envelope and the consensus models. The new NHC forecast track is also shifted a little southward and has the center making landfall along the Texas coast in about 48 h. The depression is in an environment of light shear with good anticyclonic outflow, and it will be over warm sea surface temperatures until landfall. This should allow steady strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast has been increased to show a peak intensity of 50 kt just before landfall, followed by steady weakening and eventually dissipation after landfall. The new intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus. The aircraft and scatterometer data show that the strongest winds in the cyclone are currently occurring about 70-90 n mi from the center. This has caused the forecast wind radii to be expanded, and as a result a Tropical Storm Warning is needed for portions of the Texas coast. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it is likely to bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm warning has been issued. 2. The tropical cyclone is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana, southern Texas, and northern Mexico. These rains could result in flash flooding and isolated minor-to-moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 26.1N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 26.5N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 27.1N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 27.5N 95.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 27.6N 97.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 27.5N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/1800Z 27.3N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1800Z 27.0N 102.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082020)
2020-07-23 22:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 the center of Eight was located near 26.1, -90.7 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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