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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-06-30 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300232 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042020 0300 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042020)
2020-06-30 04:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 the center of Four-E was located near 20.5, -112.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-06-30 04:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 112.6W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 112.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight. Weakening should begin on Tuesday, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low when it moves over cooler waters by Tuesday afternoon or evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-06-30 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042020 0300 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.6W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.6W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.1N 113.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.4N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.6N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 21.8N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 112.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-06-30 01:28:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
948 ABNT20 KNHC 292328 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the southern Windward Islands is producing limited shower activity. Persistently unfavorable environmental conditions and strong upper-level winds by Wednesday are expected to inhibit any further development while it moves west-northwestward at around 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. A trough of low pressure has formed along the coast of North Carolina. Significant development of this system is not anticipated while it generally moves northeastward, away from the east coast of the United States and becomes absorbed Wednesday into a frontal boundary currently located east of the Mid-Atlantic states. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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