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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-06-30 10:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300833 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042020 0900 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 113.2W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 113.2W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.0N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.2N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.6N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-06-30 07:21:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 300521 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E, located a little more than 200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico later this week. Gradual development of the system will be possible by the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-06-30 07:11:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
465 ABNT20 KNHC 300511 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure is located off the coast of North Carolina. Significant development of this system is not anticipated while it moves generally northeastward, away from the east coast of the United States and merges with a frontal boundary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2020-06-30 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Jun 2020 02:34:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Jun 2020 02:34:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-06-30 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300232 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure located southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better defined over the past 24 hours, and the system has maintained convection for much of the past 12 hours. Although the convection has not been particularly well organized at times today, a new burst of convection developed just northeast of the low-level center late this afternoon and has been persistent over the past several hours. Based on these observations and Dvorak T-number of 1.5 from TAFB and 2.0 from SAB, the system is being designated as a 30-kt tropical depression. The system is expected to be a short- lived tropical cyclone as it will be moving into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and over SSTs of around 24 degrees Celsius by Tuesday morning. As a result, the depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. The NHC wind speed prediction follows the trend of the intensity guidance and also calls for the remnant low to dissipate in 2 to 3 days. The depression is moving slowly northwestward around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over central Mexico. The cyclone should continue moving on the same general heading with some reduction in forward speed as it weakens and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.5N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 21.1N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 21.4N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 21.6N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 21.8N 113.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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