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Tropical Depression Ida Public Advisory Number 19
2021-08-30 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 302037 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ida Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...IDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 90.3W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 90.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over central and northeastern Mississippi tonight. Ida is then forecast to move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and near the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northern Gulf coast should continue to subside through this evening. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, Ida will produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts possible. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along the southeast coast of Louisiana with considerable flash flooding and riverine flooding continuing farther inland. Ida will continue to turn northeast this evening and is forecast to track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional 3 to 6 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight. Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. Southern New England: 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts, Wednesday into Thursday. Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding is occurring or forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. Rivers will remain elevated into next week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across far southeast Mississippi, the southern half of Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. The threat for a few tornadoes will shift east on Tuesday and become centered across eastern Alabama, western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf coast through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ida. Future information on Ida can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-08-30 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 302037 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSON MS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Kate Graphics
2021-08-30 22:36:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 20:36:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 21:28:54 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ida Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-08-30 22:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 302036 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 90.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 90.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 90.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.6N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.8N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.3N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.0N 80.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.5N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 41.0N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 90.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IDA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-30 22:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 988 WTNT45 KNHC 302035 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 The low-level center of Kate is exposed in visible satellite imagery this afternoon. Its deep convection collapsed late this morning, and the sheared tropical cyclone is now only producing a small area of convection over 60 n mi east of its center. A partial 1321 UTC ASCAT-B pass still showed numerous 30-kt wind vectors in the eastern semicircle, even with little to no active convection. The initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. The subtropical jet stream across the central Atlantic will continue to impart strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear on Kate during the next day or so. If the struggling tropical cyclone can survive these hostile conditions, some modest strengthening could occur later this week over warm SSTs of 28 deg C or so. However, the lack of mid-level moisture in the surrounding environment may limit convective development even under these more favorable conditions, and there is no guarantee that Kate will survive that long. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kate may continue to only produce sporadic bursts of convection over the next couple of days, which jeopardizes its chances of surviving through the week. The official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward based on the latest guidance trends and the uncertainties discussed above. Minor fluctuations in intensity could occur over the next 24-36 h as convective pulsing causes the cyclone's intensity to hover around tropical-storm-force strength. Kate is moving a little faster toward the north, or 355/9 kt, within a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A northward motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. The subtropical ridge is expected to become reestablished over the central Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday, which should turn Kate toward the northwest through midweek. Thereafter, Kate is forecast to accelerate northward or north-northeastward ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough that will move across the western Atlantic late this week. Assuming Kate is still around by day 5, the cyclone is forecast to become absorbed by a larger extratropical low near Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 22.7N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 23.7N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 24.7N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 25.8N 51.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 27.0N 52.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 28.4N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 30.1N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 34.5N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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