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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-30 07:52:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 300552 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ida, located inland over southeastern Louisiana, on Tropical Depression Ten, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian, moving rapidly northeastward over the central subtropical Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms have mostly diminished with the broad area of low pressure located east of the Delmarva Peninsula. Upper-level winds are expected to increase over the low tomorrow, and its prospects for further development have decreased as it drifts slowly away from the east coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa later today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of a low pressure area once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the southern Caribbean Sea over the next several days. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for some slow development by the end of the week, as long as the system remains over water. This system is expected to move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the western Caribbean Sea close to the east coast of Central America. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Nora Graphics
2021-08-30 07:38:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 05:38:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 03:40:28 GMT
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-30 07:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 300536 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 29 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Nora, located near the coast of northwestern Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-30 07:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 12:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 the center of Nora was located near 25.0, -108.0 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nora Public Advisory Number 18A
2021-08-30 07:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300532 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1200 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...NORA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 108.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nora was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 25.0 North, longitude 108.0 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue until Nora dissipates inland later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Nora has become very disorganized, and is forecast to dissipate inland later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Nayarit to southern Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur and northern Sonora. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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