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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-31 01:27:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 302326 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Aug 30 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-31 01:25:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 302325 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Tropical Depression Ida, located inland over Mississippi. Future advisories on Ida will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kate, located over the central tropical Atlantic. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic just off the west coast of Africa. This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mostly on its south side. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some slow development by the end of the week, as long as the system remains over water. This system is expected to move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central America. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Tropical Depression Ida can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Ida Graphics
2021-08-30 22:38:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 20:38:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 21:22:52 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ida Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-08-30 22:38:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 302037 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Ida Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Ida has continued to weaken while moving farther inland over west-central Mississippi this afternoon. Recent observations indicate that the stronger winds seen this morning along the northern Gulf coast have now dropped below tropical storm strength, and Ida has become a tropical depression. Additional weakening should occur while Ida moves over northeastern Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley during the next 12 to 24 hours. Ida is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone over the eastern United States by late Wednesday, and it is likely to be absorbed within a frontal boundary over the western Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. Ida has turned northeastward and is now moving 020/8 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough approaching Ida from the west should cause the cyclone to move faster toward the northeast over the next couple of days. The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a bit better agreement regarding the forward speed of the Ida as it moves across the eastern U.S., and the NHC track forecast is again near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Ida's winds have decreased, the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding will continue to spread inland over portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, the Central and Southern Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ida. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Alabama, resulting in considerable flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Rivers in the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain elevated into next week. As Ida moves inland, additional considerable flooding impacts are likely across portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, and particularly in the Central and Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. 2. In areas that experienced damage and power loss, individuals should use extreme caution during the recovery phase. Post-storm fatalities and injuries often result from heart attacks, heat exhaustion, accidents related to clean up and recovery, and carbon monoxide poisoning from improper generator use. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 32.6N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/0600Z 33.6N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1800Z 34.8N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/0600Z 36.3N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/1800Z 38.0N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z 39.5N 74.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1800Z 41.0N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ida (AT4/AL092021)
2021-08-30 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 the center of Ida was located near 32.6, -90.3 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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