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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-18 10:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180854 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 There's been little change in Henri's satellite appearance this morning. The surface center is still located just to the northwest of a gradually expanding central dense overcast, and there still appears to be an eye-like feature in the Bermuda Doppler radar presentation. However, there are no indications in the GOES-16 BD-curve enhanced infrared images of a developing warm spot. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain steady, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. Although the surrounding thermodynamic environment is ripe for further significant development, moderate northwesterly shear continues to impinge on the cyclone causing difficulty in inner-core convective development. Consequently, little change in strength is expected during the next couple days, and in fact the statistical SHIPS model indicates an increase in a more northerly shear component on Thursday. By Saturday afternoon, however, the shear should decrease as the cyclone slides beneath an upper ridge axis off of the southeast U.S. coast. Henri is expected to further intensity through the remaining period as the upper-wind flow becomes much more diffluent. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the SHIPS model and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach aid after the 60-hour period. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/7 kt. A high amplitude mid- to upper-level anticyclone situated north-northeast of Henri should steer the cyclone toward the west during the next 36 hours, or so. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward in response to a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving over the northeastern U.S. As a result of the change in the synoptic steering pattern, Henri should turn toward the northwest, north, and then northeast through the remaining portion of the forecast. With so much uncertainty or spread in the global and regional models beyond day 3, the best approach at this point is to base the NHC forecast on the better performing multi-model consensus guidance, which has once again shifted a bit to the left of the previous track forecast. I think it's worth noting that the GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward toward the New England coast. Therefore, additional changes or shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on subsequent advisories. Due to the increased uncertainty in the track forecast, interests along the New England coast should monitor the progress of Henri. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 30.1N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 29.9N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 29.8N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 30.4N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 31.4N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 33.0N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 37.6N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 40.5N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-18 10:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI NOW MOVING WESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 18 the center of Henri was located near 30.1, -65.7 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 10
2021-08-18 10:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 180853 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 ...HENRI NOW MOVING WESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 65.7W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For additional storm information, please monitor products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 65.7 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-northwest and Northwest by late Thursday is expected, followed by a turn to the northwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength if forecast through Thursday. However, Henri could still become a hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight across Bermuda and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-08-18 10:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 180853 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) X(16) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-08-18 10:52:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180852 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Grace earlier this morning observed a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 61 kt in the northeastern quadrant along with reliable SFMR surface wind speeds of 50-52 kt. The aircraft measured a central pressure of about 1000 mb, a reading that had been steady for about 3 hours. Those data were the basis for maintaining the 0600 UTC intensity at 50 kt. Since the last recon mission, however, deep convection has increased markedly over the low-level center, with cloud tops exceeding -75 deg C. Although the center is just inside the western edge of convective cloud canopy due to modest west-northwesterly vertical wind shear, Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt. These intensity estimates, along with the increase in convection over the center is the justification for increasing the 0900 UTC advisory intensity to 55 kt. Grace has been maintaining a steady course north of due west, or 280/14 kt for more than 18 hours. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to keep Grace moving in direction between west and west-northwest through the 96-hour forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance remain in strong agreement on Grace making landfall along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico shortly after the 24-hour forecast period, followed by a motion across the peninsula and emerging over the Bay of Campeche around 36 hours. Thereafter, the model guidance begins to diverge, with the HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC regional models along the northern side of the guidance envelope, the GFS and UKMET global models down the middle, and the ECMWF model along the southern edge of the guidance suite. The new NHC forecast lies close to the previous advisory track and the consensus models TVCA and HCCA, which are a little south of the FSSE consensus model. Although the upper-level wind environment isn't ideal for rapid strengthening, it is conducive enough for steady strengthening to occur due to the flow forecast to be strongly diffluent. Sea-surface temperatures are expected to be near 30 deg C and the water is also deep and warm, which should prevent any cold upwelling from occurring beneath the cyclone. As a result, a peak intensity of 75 kt just prior to landfall has been carried over from the previous advisory, which is a little above all of the 0600 UTC intensity guidance. Although Grace will weaken substantially after passing over the Yucatan peninsula, restrengthening is expected over the warm waters of thew Bay of Campeche in the 48-72- hour period where the upper-level flow regime is forecast to be more conducive for intensification. Dissipation is now expected over the mountains of central Mexico by 120 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids at 36 hours and beyond. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected over portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning late tonight. 2. Over the next few days, heavy rainfall across the Cayman Islands as well as portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Vera Cruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. Mudslides will be possible in Jamaica. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the Cayman Islands through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward from portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the warning area to, possibly, other portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the watch area today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 18.8N 80.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 19.3N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 19.9N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 20.7N 96.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 20.6N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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