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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-18 05:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180331 CCA TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 9...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 Corrected speed of motion in the second paragraph. Henri's appearance on satellite imagery has remained more or less steady-state, featuring a small CDO with additional convective banding along the eastern side of the circulation. However, the earlier mid-level eye feature that was trying to develop on radar from Bermuda has recently become more ill-defined, possibly due to some dry-air being entrained into the inner-core of the storm. The latest Dvorak subjective estimates from SAB and TAFB were T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt, respectively. In addition, a 2336 UTC ASCAT-A pass had lower peak wind retrievals than what was found earlier today, but this instrument may not be quite able to sample the relatively small tropical cyclone core observed on radar. For now, the initial intensity will be held at 55 kt, though this estimate could be a bit generous given the recent scatterometer data. Henri has begun a more pronounced motion to the west-southwest, and the latest initial motion is estimated at 255/07 kt. An amplified mid- to upper-tropospheric ridge located northwest of Henri is expected to keep the storm on a west-southwestward or westward heading in the short term. However this ridge will begin to gradually erode as an mid- to upper-level trough propagates eastward to the Eastern United States. This should allow Henri to start gaining latitude by 48 hours, turning toward the northwest, north, and then northeast as the mid-level ridging redevelops southeast of the cyclone. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance, with the stronger regional hurricane models on the left side, while the weaker global models remain more on the right side of the guidance envelope. In general though, there was another westward shift in the guidance suite, so the latest NHC forecast track was adjusted again in that direction, and is in closest agreement to the HCCA guidance aid. The intensity forecast in the short-term is tricky. Last night and this morning, Henri's deep convection was been able to propagate into its up-shear quadrant, in spite of light to moderate northwesterly shear importing fairly dry mid-latitude air from the north. Consequently, the storm has been able to intensify and become more axis-symmetrical. Over the past few hours, however, the convection to the northwest of the center has eroded once again on Bermuda radar, likely due to dry air entrainment by the aforementioned vertical wind shear. On the other hand, the tropical cyclone is currently over sea-surface temperatures above 29 C, which will likely allow for significant boundary layer recovery of dry mid-level air that is able to get into the inner core. Thus, even as northerly vertical wind shear increases over the next 24 hours, Henri is expected to maintain its intensity. After 60 hours, this northerly shear is expected to subside, and Henri will have an opportunity to intensify towards the end of the forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous one for the first 60 hours, but is a little stronger in the latter time periods, blending the reliable HCCA guidance with the more aggressive regional hurricane models (HWRF, COAMPS-TC). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 30.0N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 29.9N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 30.9N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 32.0N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 40.2N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-18 05:07:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 03:07:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 03:35:08 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-18 04:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH 65-MPH WINDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 17 the center of Henri was located near 30.0, -65.1 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 9
2021-08-18 04:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 180257 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HENRI MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH 65-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 65.1W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 65.1 West. Henri is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn to the west with a faster forward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by an additional turn to the west-northwest and northwest by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, followed by little change in strength through Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight across Bermuda and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island. SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-18 04:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 180257 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) 1(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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