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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-08-18 10:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 144 WTNT22 KNHC 180851 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS HAVE ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 80.9W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 80.9W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N 83.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 86.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N 96.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.6N 101.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 80.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2021-08-18 10:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 180851 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 14(34) X(34) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 15(44) X(44) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 3(28) X(28) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MERIDA MX 34 X 5( 5) 47(52) 9(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 3 76(79) 10(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) COZUMEL MX 50 X 43(43) 21(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) COZUMEL MX 64 X 14(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BELIZE CITY 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 6 32(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 17 9(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 50 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-18 07:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 180549 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Grace, located over the western Caribbean Sea just to the east-southeast of Grand Cayman, and on Tropical Storm Henri, located about 160 miles south of Bermuda. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fred, located inland over western Virginia. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Tropical Depression Fred can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-18 07:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 05:48:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 03:35:08 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-18 07:47:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Aug 18 the center of Henri was located near 30.0, -65.1 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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