je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-18 04:56:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 180256 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 65.1W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 65.1W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 64.5W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 29.9N 66.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.0N 71.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 40.2N 65.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 65.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-18 04:50:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 02:50:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 03:28:56 GMT
Tags: graphics
grace
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-08-18 04:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 009 WTNT42 KNHC 180248 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been investigating Grace this evening have found that the center moved off the western tip of Jamaica shortly before 0000 UTC. Radar and conventional satellite imagery, as well as earlier microwave data, show that convective banding has increased with a band that wraps around the eastern and northern portions of the circulation. The Air Force reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 64 kt, and both aircraft have measured believable SFMR winds of 50-52 kt. Based on those data the maximum winds were increased to 50 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory, and the initial intensity remains unchanged for this advisory. Grace will be moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. That, along with generally low to moderate vertical wind shear conditions, should allow for steady strengthening until Grace reaches the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in just under 36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast call for Grace to become a hurricane on Wednesday, and the storm could peak near category 2 intensity before it reaches the coast of Mexico late Wednesday night or early Thursday. By the 36- hour forecast, some weakening is likely to have occurred as that point is now inland. Some weakening will likely occur while Grace moves over land, but restrengthening is predicted when the storm moves over the Bay of Campeche. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Grace has been moving slightly north of due west, or 280/12 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge the extends from the western Atlantic across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer the tropical storm westward to west-northwestward for the next several days. While the dynamical models agree on this overall forecast scenario, there remains some north-south spread with the HWRF, HMON, and GFS along the northern side of the guidance envelope, taking Grace near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. On the other hand, the UKMET and its ensemble mean depict a more westward track toward the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The NHC forecast splits these differences and lies near the various consensus aids, which were just a tad farther south this cycle. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected over portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning late Wednesday night. 2. Heavy rainfall across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula is likely to lead to flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in Jamaica. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Jamaica for a few more hours, and over the Cayman Islands later tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward from portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the warning area to, possibly, other portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the watch area tonight through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 18.4N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 18.9N 81.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 19.5N 84.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 20.0N 87.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0000Z 20.4N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 20.8N 95.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 20.7N 100.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 23/0000Z 20.5N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
grace
storm
Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-08-18 04:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 032 FONT12 KNHC 180248 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) 1(33) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 23(41) 1(42) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 9(31) X(31) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 34(35) 31(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 34 X 22(22) 66(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) COZUMEL MX 50 X 3( 3) 59(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 31(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BELIZE CITY 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 27(29) 11(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 6 22(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 93 4(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GRAND CAYMAN 50 61 16(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) GRAND CAYMAN 64 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-18 04:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES IN JAMAICA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 the center of Grace was located near 18.4, -79.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
grace
storm
tropical
Sites : [362] [363] [364] [365] [366] [367] [368] [369] [370] [371] [372] [373] [374] [375] [376] [377] [378] [379] [380] [381] next »