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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-08-18 22:47:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 182047 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 16(34) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 17(53) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 15(40) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 13(42) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 8(26) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 3(21) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 3(19) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 2(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 3(24) X(24) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-18 22:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 18 the center of Henri was located near 29.9, -67.6 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 12
2021-08-18 22:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 182047 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 ...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 67.6W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 67.6 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for another day or so. A turn to the north is expected on Friday with that motion continuing into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Henri is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-18 22:47:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 182046 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 67.6W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 67.6W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 67.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.8N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.7N 72.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.2N 71.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 39.3N 70.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 41.4N 69.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 67.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-18 19:48:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 181748 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 18 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Linda, located about 1500 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Hurricane Grace, located over the Caribbean Sea, is forecast to move inland over mainland Mexico early Saturday morning and dissipate over Mexico on Sunday. However, the remnants are expected to continue westward into the eastern Pacific Ocean, and an area of low pressure could form by early next week off the coast of southwest Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter while the low moves westward at around 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
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