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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-17 19:29:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 171729 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Grace located near Jamaica, and on Tropical Storm Henri, located over 100 miles south of Bermuda. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories over Tropical Depression Fred, located over northern Georgia. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Tropical Depression Fred can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-17 19:28:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 171728 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 17 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Linda, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-17 17:00:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 15:00:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 15:28:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-17 16:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 171452 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 The cloud pattern of Grace is gradually becoming better organized on satellite images, but the system still lacks distinct banding features over the eastern semicircle. Cirrus-level outflow from the system appears to be well defined. Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds, as well as dropsonde measurements, support an intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Not much change in intensity is likely through this afternoon while the circulation of Grace interacts with the island of Jamaica. Thereafter, since the cyclone will be over the very high heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea with modestly low vertical shear tonight and Wednesday, strengthening is anticipated. Grace will likely become a hurricane tomorrow and continue to intensify before moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. The interaction with that land mass is expected to temporarily interrupt strengthening, with some reintensification over the Bay of Campeche in 3-4 days. The official intensity forecast is near the model consensus for the first half of the forecast period, but below the consensus for the latter part of the period owing to the inherent uncertainties for that extended time frame. Grace continues to move just a little north of due west, or at about 280/13 kt. A well-defined 500 mb ridge should remain entrenched to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next several days. Therefore, a continued west to west-northwestward track is likely to continue for most, if not all, of the forecast period. The official forecast is close to the previous one through 72 hours and just slightly south of it at 4-5 days. This is very similar to the latest multi-model consensus prediction. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and Jamaica. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Jamaica today, and over the Cayman Islands later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba today in the warning area, spreading westward to possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba this evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is an increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and a Hurricane Warning will likely be needed for that area later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 18.3N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 18.8N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 19.2N 82.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 19.7N 85.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 20.4N 88.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/0000Z 20.9N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 20/1200Z 21.1N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 21.5N 98.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-08-17 16:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 171452 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 5(38) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 4(35) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 1(19) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 25(60) X(60) X(60) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) X(26) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 31(33) 45(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 4( 4) 23(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 11(12) 12(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 87(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 59(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MONTEGO BAY 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MONTEGO BAY 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KINGSTON 34 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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