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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-10 21:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAINBANDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Aug 10 the center of Six was located near 16.6, -64.8 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2021-08-10 19:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 17:51:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 17:37:16 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-10 19:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAINBANDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Aug 10 the center of Six was located near 16.6, -64.8 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-08-10 19:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101751 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 ...RAINBANDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 64.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM W OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 64.8 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Squalls with winds to tropical-storm force are occuring over portions of the northern Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-10 19:19:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 101719 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Latto
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