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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-10 16:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 14:41:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 14:41:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Graphics
2021-08-10 16:41:20| Tropical Depression LIDIA
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 14:41:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 14:41:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-10 16:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 101440 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk of the deep convection located southwest of its center, while the center itself was exposed for a few hours earlier this morning. The structure of the cyclone has changed little since yesterday, and remains somewhat elongated. The estimated initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Kevin continues to make its jog to the northwest, and the initial motion is 315/08 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Model guidance has continued to make a gradual shift to the north for the past several runs, and thus the latest NHC track forecast has been nudged a little northward as well, lying just south of the consensus models. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist over Kevin for the next 24 h, which should limit the cyclone's ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. By 24 h, the cyclone will begin to pass over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Based on this scenario, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows no change in strength through much of tonight, followed by weakening beginning Wednesday morning. By 72 h, CMC and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.1N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.9N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.0N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 22.1N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 25.2N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 27.2N 128.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 28.7N 131.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-10 16:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS TOMORROW... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 the center of Kevin was located near 19.1, -114.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 13
2021-08-10 16:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 101439 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 ...KEVIN EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 114.3W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 114.3 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of Baja California Sur today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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