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Tropical Storm Carlos Public Advisory Number 4
2021-06-13 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 ...CARLOS STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 126.0W ABOUT 1305 MI...2105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 126.0 West. Carlos is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to occur this afternoon and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow weakening is expected by midweek. Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-06-13 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 131447 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.0W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.0W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 125.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.6N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.1N 127.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.7N 128.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.4N 128.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.4N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 12.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.2N 129.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 126.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-13 13:42:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 131142 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos, located more than 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A weak area of low pressure located about a hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico has become ill-defined while the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for development, and formation of a tropical cyclone is not anticipated. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-13 13:42:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131142 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche. Slow development is possible over the next several days while the broad disturbance moves little, and a tropical depression could form in this area late in the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Carlos Graphics
2021-06-13 10:37:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 08:37:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 09:22:27 GMT
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