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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-06-13 04:53:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130253 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 124.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 124.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 124.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 11.8N 125.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.4N 126.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 10.8N 127.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.3N 127.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.3N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 11.5N 128.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 13.5N 127.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/PASCH
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-13 01:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
329 ABPZ20 KNHC 122333 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Three-E, located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association with a weak area of low pressure located about a hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional development over the next day or so. By early next week, the system is forecast to interact with land and a larger disturbance developing to its north, and further development is not anticipated. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Papin/Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-13 01:26:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 122326 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure. Slow development is possible over the next several days while this system moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Three-E Graphics
2021-06-12 22:47:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Jun 2021 20:47:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Jun 2021 21:22:42 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-06-12 22:46:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122046 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 The disturbance that has been tracked westward for the past several days across the open waters of the the tropical eastern Pacific has finally established a sufficiently well-defined low-level circulation to be designated as Tropical Depression Three-E. Convection increased last night and began to consolidate, while satellite images and microwave data this morning indicated that there was evidence of a well-defined low developing. This was later confirmed by a pair of ASCAT overpasses. These overpasses showed a compact radius of maximum winds. And, although the ASCAT-A data had a few vectors between 30-35 kt, these were not homogeneous and appeared unrepresentative of the system's intensity. In addition, the rather ragged satellite appearance and the Dvorak intensity estimate of 2.0 from SAB are suggestive that this system should be initialized as a 30-kt depression for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression is moderately conducive for gradual strengthening, with SSTs of 27-28 degrees C, mid-level RH values between 50-60 percent, and vertical wind shear of about 5-10 kt. These conditions are expected to continue for the next 2-3 days. By 72 h, dry air and subsidence are expected to hinder any further intensification and should begin a weakening trend. By late in the forecast period, the system is forecast to cross the 26 degree C isotherm, which should hasten the pace of weakening. The official intensity closely follows the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA, which shows the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight, and levels off its intensity by 48 h, followed by a weakening trend after 60 h. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is steering it at a somewhat uncertain 275/08 kt. This ridge is forecast by nearly all of the models to weaken over the next couple of days, leaving the depression in a region of very weak steering currents through early next week. A mid-upper level trough digging southward to the northwest of the cyclone should induce a northerly component of motion along with an increase in forward speed by midweek. As said, there is good agreement on the pattern, however, the models vary greatly on how abruptly they slow the system. This is resulting in a track model spread of about 300 n mi by 72 h. The NHC track forecast tries to split the difference by closely following the TVCE and TVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 11.8N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 11.9N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 11.7N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 11.4N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 11.0N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 10.8N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 11.0N 126.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 12.5N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 15.2N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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