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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 41

2019-10-02 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 021435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 ...LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.4N 25.8W ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WSW OF CORK IRELAND ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM WSW OF GALWAY IRELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has discontinued all warnings for the Azores. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 25.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward and then southeastward Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Lorenzo will move near western Ireland on Thursday, then pass over Ireland and England on Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and the system is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. A faster rate of weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over Ireland and England. Lorenzo is a very large cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- For hazard information for Lorenzo in Ireland and the United Kingdom see products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met Office. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and- sea/high-seas-forecast. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at http://www.met.ie/. Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics

2019-10-02 13:59:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2019 11:59:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2019 09:23:06 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)

2019-10-02 13:58:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LORENZO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AZORES... As of 8:00 AM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Lorenzo was located near 43.0, -28.0 with movement NE at 43 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 40A

2019-10-02 13:58:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 161 WTNT33 KNHC 021158 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.0N 28.0W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM NNE OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria These warnings will likely be discontinued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 28.0 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will continue moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km). As Lorenzo passed near the western Azores earlier this morning, a sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) with a gust to 101 mph (163 km/h) was reported on Corvo Island. A wind gust of 90 mph (145 km/h) was observed on Faial Island, and a gust to 88 mph (142 km/h) was reported on Flores Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Winds will continue to decrease across the Azores this morning. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of less than 1 inch (25 mm) through this morning. Isolated storm total amounts of 2 inches (50 mm) are possible in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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