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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 39

2019-10-02 04:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 020247 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 32.7W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT.......100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT.......200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW. 34 KT.......300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 600SE 660SW 680NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 32.7W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 34.2W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.7N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.4N 21.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 52.8N 15.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 60NW. 50 KT...160NE 200SE 200SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 54.1N 10.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 160SE 160SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 330SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 52.3N .5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 32.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics

2019-10-02 01:51:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 23:51:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 21:24:40 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)

2019-10-02 01:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN AZORES AS LORENZO BARRELS FASTER TOWARD THE ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of Lorenzo was located near 37.8, -34.3 with movement NE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 38A

2019-10-02 01:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 012350 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN AZORES AS LORENZO BARRELS FASTER TOWARD THE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.8N 34.3W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 34.3 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h). A northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is expected through Thursday. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores late tonight or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). During the past hour, a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was reported at the Santa Cruz Airport on Flores island in the western Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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