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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-10-01 13:41:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE WIND FIELD OF LORENZO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW... As of 8:00 AM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of Lorenzo was located near 34.3, -39.0 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 36A
2019-10-01 13:41:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 011141 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 36A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 ...LARGE WIND FIELD OF LORENZO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 39.0W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 39.0 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-10-01 10:45:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 08:45:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 09:24:43 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 36
2019-10-01 10:41:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010841 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 Lorenzo's eye has become less distinct on satellite images over the past several hours, but the system remains very well organized with tightly curved convective bands. The upper-level outflow remains quite well-defined. The advisory intensity, 85 kt, is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with ADT values from UW-CIMSS. Sea-surface temperatures beneath the cyclone are likely to fall below 20 deg C within 36 hours, along with a large increase in vertical shear. Since Lorenzo has such a large circulation, it will probably be slow to weaken, however. In 48 hours or less, the global models show the system merging with a frontal zone, indicating the transition to an extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the numerical guidance but still weakens the cyclone below hurricane strength when it nears Ireland and Great Britain. By 96 hours, the cyclone should dissipate over Europe. The hurricane continues to accelerate, and is now moving northeastward near 19 kt. Continued acceleration on the southeast and east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough over the central north Atlantic should occur over the next day or two. In 72 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to turn east-northeastward while moving in the westerly flow ahead of the north Atlantic trough. There is still significant track model divergence around this time, and the official 3-day forecast is somewhat southeast of the model consensus. This leans toward the latest ECMWF solution, which continues to be on the southeast side of the track guidance envelope. Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 33.4N 39.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 35.9N 36.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 45.5N 24.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 51.0N 18.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0600Z 56.5N 8.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2019-10-01 10:41:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 010841 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 99(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 98(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X 74(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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