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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 38
2019-10-01 22:34:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 012034 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 The eye of Lorenzo, while still evident in both visible and infrared satellite imagery, has become smaller and slightly less distinct this afternoon, but the overall structure of the hurricane has not changed much since the previous advisory. Objective Dvorak T-numbers crept up this morning when the eye cleared for a couple of hours and are somewhat higher than the latest subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB. A blend of these estimates remains around 85 kt, and this is the value used as the initial wind speed for this advisory. Lorenzo is heading toward colder waters and an area of increasing vertical wind shear. However, since the wind field of the hurricane is quite large, only gradually weakening is foreast during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Lorenzo is forecast to merge with a front and become a strong extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic. The global models indicate that the post-tropical low will weaken more quickly when it moves near Ireland and Great Britain in 2 to 3 days. Lorenzo continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial motion estimate of 040/25 kt. The forward speed of the hurricane is predicted to increase further overnight and on Wednesday as it is steered northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic. By late Thursday, the post-tropical cyclone should slow down and turn eastward or east-southeastward within the low-level westerly flow. The track has continued to bend to the right beyond 48 hours, and the official forecast has once again been adjusted southward and eastward at that time period. The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF model. Lorenzo is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies: The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 37.0N 35.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 45.6N 24.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 51.2N 18.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1800Z 54.4N 13.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1800Z 53.2N 3.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2019-10-01 22:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 012034 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) PONTA DELGADA 34 6 16(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-10-01 22:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN AZORES WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SOON AS LORENZO MOVES CLOSER... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of Lorenzo was located near 37.0, -35.5 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 38
2019-10-01 22:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 012033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 ...CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN AZORES WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SOON AS LORENZO MOVES CLOSER... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.0N 35.5W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 35.5 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). A northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is expected through Thursday. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores late tonight or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). During the past hour, a wind gust to 38 mph (61 km/h) was reported at the Santa Cruz Airport on Flores island in the western Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 38
2019-10-01 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 012033 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 35.5W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT.......150NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 540SE 540SW 720NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 35.5W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 36.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 140NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 45.6N 24.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW 60NW. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 110NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 51.2N 18.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 60NW. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 54.4N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 160SE 160SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 330SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 53.2N 3.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 35.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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