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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 40
2019-10-02 10:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 020835 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 Lorenzo passed near Flores in the Azores a few hours ago where hurricane-force winds, at least in gusts, were observed. Winds are now decreasing across those islands. The current intensity estimate, 75 kt, assumes only slow weakening since late yesterday. The cloud pattern is becoming increasingly asymmetric in appearance, suggestive that transition to an extratropical cyclone is well underway. The global models indicate that Lorenzo will soon become embedded in a frontal zone, and simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models show an extratropical-looking cloud pattern later today. The official forecast calls for a gradual weakening trend over the next couple of days and is above the intensity guidance. Although the system is forecast to become extratropical in 12 hours, it is still likely be a fairly vigorous cyclone when it reaches Ireland late Thursday. After crossing England, the low is likely to dissipate over continental Europe. Lorenzo accelerated significantly late Tuesday, and the motion is rapidly northeastward, or 040/37 kt. Over the next day or so, the system should continue to move northeastward ahead of a large mid-tropospheric trough over the north Atlantic. Then, the cyclone is forecast to turn eastward and a little south of eastward in the weaker westerly flow ahead of the trough. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus, but leans a bit toward the ECMWF forecast. Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies: The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 Key Messages: 1. Winds across the Azores will continue to decrease, and watches and warnings for those islands will likely be discontinued later today. 2. Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon or evening. 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 42.3N 29.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 46.4N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/0600Z 51.6N 16.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 03/1800Z 54.3N 11.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/0600Z 53.5N 6.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/0600Z 51.5N 3.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2019-10-02 10:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 020835 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-10-02 10:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AZORES... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Lorenzo was located near 42.3, -29.4 with movement NE at 43 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 40
2019-10-02 10:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020834 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.3N 29.4W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 42.3 North, longitude 29.4 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will continue moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Winds will continue to decrease across the Azores this morning. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of less than 1 inch (25 mm) through this morning. Isolated storm total amounts of 2 inches (50 mm) are possible in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 40
2019-10-02 10:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 435 WTNT23 KNHC 020833 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 29.4W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 37 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT.......100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT.......200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW. 34 KT.......300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 660SE 780SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 29.4W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 31.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 46.4N 24.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 51.6N 16.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 54.3N 11.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 53.5N 6.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 51.5N 3.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.3N 29.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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