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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-10-01 19:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 17:49:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 15:24:43 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-10-01 19:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE OF VERY LARGE LORENZO MOVING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of Lorenzo was located near 36.0, -36.8 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 37A
2019-10-01 19:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 011749 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 200 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 ...EYE OF VERY LARGE LORENZO MOVING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 36.8W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 36.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-10-01 16:55:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 14:55:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 15:24:43 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 37
2019-10-01 16:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 011454 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 Lorenzo remains a well organized hurricane this morning as it heads toward the Azores. The eye has made a reappearance in infrared satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the surrounding ring of convection have cooled. The advisory intensity remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to 90 kt. Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by Wednesday. The global models show the hurricane merging with a frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours. The extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate over Europe by 96 hours. Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt. The hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow. The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement on the eastward turn later in the period. The updated NHC track has been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the multi-model consensus. An additional southward and eastward adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone's track near Ireland and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories. Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 35.2N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 38.0N 34.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 42.8N 28.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 48.5N 21.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1200Z 53.5N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1200Z 56.0N 7.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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