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Tropical Storm ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-05-10 16:47:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 101446 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1500 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 1 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NORFOLK NAS 34 2 15(17) 10(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 2 15(17) 12(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) NORFOLK VA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 5( 5) 16(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 11 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 11(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 14 9(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 82 X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) CHARLESTON SC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm ANA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-05-10 16:46:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 101446 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1500 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 78.9W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 78.9W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 78.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.9N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 36.2N 77.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.2N 75.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 41.0N 71.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 78.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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ana
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 11
2015-05-10 16:46:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101446 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ...ANA LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 78.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Little River Inlet South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning north of Surf City North Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina has been discontinued SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina and Virginia should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 78.9 West. Ana is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a turn toward the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Ana will move over eastern North Carolina later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Ana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area for the next few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over eastern portions of North Carolina and northeast South Carolina through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm ANA Graphics
2015-05-10 13:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 May 2015 11:52:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 May 2015 09:03:44 GMT
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ana
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 10A
2015-05-10 13:48:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101147 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 800 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ...ANA INLAND AND WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 78.9W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina and Virginia should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was located by NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.9 West. Ana is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ana will move over eastern North Carolina later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next day or so as the center moves over land, and Ana should become a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. Kure Beach, North Carolina recently reported a wind gust to 45 mph (75 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area this morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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