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Tropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 9A
2015-05-10 07:57:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100556 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 200 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 78.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina and Virginia should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was located by NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 78.5 West. Ana is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Ana is expected to reach the coast of northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina later this morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Ana moves over cooler waters close to the coast. A more rapid rate of weakening should begin after the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, NOAA buoy 41013, located about 35 miles (55 km) south-southeast of Cape Fear North Carolina, reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area today. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Roberts
Tropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-05-10 04:48:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100248 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 Satellite and radar data indicate that Ana's convective structure increased in organization during the late afternoon as banding increased over the northeastern portion of the circulation. However, during the past few hours, the cloud top temperatures have warmed and the convection has decreased in intensity. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the initial intensity remains at 50 kt, which is in best agreement with uncontaminated SFMR winds. Ana is still forecast to weaken slightly while it moves over cooler waters near the coast overnight. Additional weakening should occur once the center moves onshore Sunday morning. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over eastern North America. Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that Ana is moving north- northwestward, or 320/04. The tropical cyclone should continue moving slowly north-northwestward tonight as a mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of Ana shifts eastward. A broad trough moving into the central and eastern U.S. during the next few days is expected to cause the cyclone or its remnants to turn northward on Sunday and then northeastward at a faster forward speed by Sunday night. The updated NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 33.2N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 33.8N 78.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 11/0000Z 34.7N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 35.9N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 37.8N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm ANA Graphics
2015-05-10 04:45:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 May 2015 02:45:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 May 2015 02:44:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2015-05-10 04:44:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 100244 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0300 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 1( 2) 11(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 1 1( 2) 11(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 4 9(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 3( 6) 10(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 13 8(21) 5(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 67 7(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) WILMINGTON NC 50 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 80 3(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MYRTLE BEACH 50 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)
2015-05-10 04:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF ANA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat May 9 the center of ANA was located near 33.2, -78.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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