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Tropical Storm ANA Graphics
2015-05-09 23:07:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 20:35:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-05-09 22:35:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092035 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 500 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 Ana continues to maintain deep convection near and east of the center, although the convection is rather ragged-looking. There is weak upper-level outflow over the southern portion of the circulation. The current intensity is held at 50 kt, in agreement with data from an ASCAT overpass from several hours ago. Since the storm will be moving over progressively cooler waters as it departs the Gulf Stream, and is being influenced by northwesterly shear and some dry air, gradual weakening is forecast until landfall. After Ana crosses the coast, the weakening will of course be more rapid. The official intensity forecast is again close to IVCN, the intensity model consensus. Global model guidance indicates that Ana or its post-tropical remnant will become absorbed by, or merge with, a large extratropical cyclone over Atlantic Canada within 72 hours. The center is a little difficult to locate, but my best estimate of the initial motion is 320/3. The track forecast philosophy continues unchanged. The persistent mid-tropospheric blocking ridge to the north of Ana is predicted by the global models to shift eastward and weaken during the next day or so. The models also depict a broad trough moving eastward from the central to the eastern U.S. over the next 2-3 days. This evolution of the steering currents should cause Ana to turn northward and northeastward. The official track forecast is similar to the dynamical model consensus, IVCN, but leans a little more toward the latest ECMWF solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 32.9N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 33.4N 78.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 34.2N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0600Z 35.2N 78.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 36.7N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)
2015-05-09 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANA HEADED FOR THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat May 9 the center of ANA was located near 32.9, -78.3 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 8
2015-05-09 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 500 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 ...ANA HEADED FOR THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 78.3W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina and Virginia should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 78.3 West. Ana is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will be very near the coasts of South and North Carolina by Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast as Ana moves over cooler waters close to the coastline overnight. A more rapid rate of weakening will begin after the center crosses the coast. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41013, located about 35 miles (55 km) south-southeast of Cape Fear North Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch area, by this evening or later tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2015-05-09 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 092034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 2100 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) RICHMOND VA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) RALEIGH NC 34 5 9(14) 8(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 3( 6) 5(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 13 7(20) 6(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 53 10(63) 2(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) WILMINGTON NC 50 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 6 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 7 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MYRTLE BEACH 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 26 4(30) 1(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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