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Tropical Storm Franklin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2017-08-07 04:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 07 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 070244 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 0300 UTC MON AUG 07 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) X(36) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 21(37) X(37) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) MERIDA MX 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 12(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 20(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BELIZE CITY 34 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GUANAJA 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Advisory Number 2

2017-08-07 04:43:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 07 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070243 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 0300 UTC MON AUG 07 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF CAMPECHE TO SABANCUY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CAMPECHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CAMPECHE TO SABANCUY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 83.0W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 83.0W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 84.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N 87.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 91.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.9N 95.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 21.0N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 83.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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