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Tropical Storm Franklin Update Statement
2017-08-08 06:03:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 000 WTNT62 KNHC 080402 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1100 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 ..FRANKLIN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... High resolution data from the new NOAA GOES-16 satellite, along with radar imagery from the Belize City Doppler weather radar, indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Franklin made landfall near Pulticub, Mexico, at approximately 1045 PM CDT...0345 UTC... with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph (95 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 87.5W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF PUNTA HERRERO MEXICO ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NNE OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart/Landsea
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Tropical Storm Franklin Graphics
2017-08-08 04:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Aug 2017 02:47:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Aug 2017 03:26:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-08-08 04:42:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080241 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 Satellite images and radar data from Belize show that Franklin has an expansive and nearly symmetric circulation. However, recent microwave data indicate that the cyclone does not have a well-defined inner core, which is characterized by an elliptical ring of convection that is open on the northwest side. In addition, cloud tops are not very cold near the center, and the deepest convection is located in a band well to the east of the center over the Caribbean Sea. Earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicated that maximum winds were near 50 kt, and since the satellite presentation has not improved since then, that will remain Franklin's initial intensity. Franklin appears to have turned west-northwestward and sped up just a bit with an initial motion of 300/12 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending across the northern and central Gulf of Mexico should force Franklin west-northwestward and westward across the Yucatan peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche during the next day or two, which is handled well by the numerical models. After 36 hours, there is some latitudinal spread in the track guidance, likely related to how Franklin's circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Since tropical cyclones in the western Bay of Campeche historically have tended to turn a little southward prior to landfall, the updated NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous forecast, leaning in the direction of the HFIP Corrected Consensus and the GFS. Given Franklin's structure and limited time before landfall, the cyclone is unlikely to strengthen before the center reaches land. Weakening is anticipated while Franklin takes about 18 hours to cross the Yucatan peninsula, but the storm should then begin to restrengthen once it reaches the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche tomorrow evening. It does appear that northerly shear may begin to increase in about 36 hours, but it does not look strong enough to prevent intensification. Continuing the pattern of following the HFIP Corrected Consensus and the ICON intensity consensus, the official forecast shows Franklin reaching hurricane intensity in about 48 hours, and then making landfall on the coast of mainland Mexico as a hurricane between 48 and 72 hours. Despite what is explicitly indicated in the forecast, Franklin's low-level center is likely to dissipate near the mountains of Mexico, with the mid-level remnants continuing westward across central Mexico. Based on the updated forecast, the government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula but has issued a new Hurricane Watch for parts of the state of Veracruz in mainland Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 19.1N 87.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 19.7N 88.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 20.2N 91.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 09/1200Z 20.5N 93.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 20.6N 95.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 20.0N 100.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Franklin Public Advisory Number 6
2017-08-08 04:41:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080241 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 ...FRANKLIN POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY SOON... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 87.3W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz northward to Rio Panuco. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward from Campeche to Sabancuy, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued west of Sabancuy to east of Puerto de Veracruz. The Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City northward to the Belize/Mexico border * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 87.3 West. Franklin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west- northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will cross the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula in the next hour or two, traverse the Yucatan peninsula overnight and on Tuesday, and emerge over the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday. Franklin will then continue westward across the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected while Franklin moves across the Yucatan peninsula overnight and on Tuesday. Restrengthening is forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday while Franklin moves over the Bay of Campeche. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions of the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula and should spread westward across the remainder of the warning area overnight and on Tuesday. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Franklin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-08-08 04:41:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 08 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 080241 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 0300 UTC TUE AUG 08 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 17(32) X(32) X(32) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 33(59) X(59) X(59) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) X(19) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MERIDA MX 34 6 31(37) 2(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) COZUMEL MX 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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