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Tropical Storm Franklin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2017-08-07 16:34:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 07 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 071433 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 1500 UTC MON AUG 07 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) X(37) X(37) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 49(53) X(53) X(53) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) X(28) X(28) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) MERIDA MX 34 4 9(13) 19(32) 3(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 42 8(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) BELIZE CITY 34 6 6(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GUANAJA 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Franklin (AT2/AL072017)

2017-08-07 16:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 the center of Franklin was located near 17.7, -85.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Advisory Number 4

2017-08-07 16:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 07 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 071433 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 1500 UTC MON AUG 07 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CAMPECHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CAMPECHE TO SABANCUY A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 85.1W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 85.1W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 84.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N 86.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.1N 91.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.5N 93.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.8N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 85.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Franklin Public Advisory Number 4

2017-08-07 16:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 071433 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 ...FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 85.1W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City northward to the border of Mexico * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. Franklin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will be near the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula by this evening. Franklin is then expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula, and Franklin could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs this evening or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system moves across the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by this evening. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area this afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico on Tuesday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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