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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-08-07 22:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 072033 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 Visible satellite imagery continues to show a fairly well-organized tropical cyclone, although infrared images indicate some warming of the convective cloud tops. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the storm has a fairly broad inner core, which is consistent with the ragged eye-like feature noted on the visible imagery. The current intensity is kept at 50 kt based on a blend of SFMR and flight-level observations from the aircraft along with sampling considerations. Franklin has a well-defined, symmetric upper-level outflow pattern, and some strengthening is still expected prior to landfall. Although the cyclone could be near hurricane strength at landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula, the broad inner core of the system would argue against rapid intensification during the next 12 hours. Weakening will occur due to the passage over the Yucatan peninsula, and restrengthening over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche is forecast. Although northerly shear could inhibit strengthening somewhat, Franklin is predicted to become a hurricane before making landfall in mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus forecast. Based on center fixes from the aircraft along with geostationary and microwave imagery, the initial motion is northwestward or 310/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged. A mid-level high pressure area near the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should force Franklin to take a west-northwestward to westward course for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.1N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 20.3N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/1800Z 20.5N 98.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Franklin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-08-07 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 07 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 072033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 2100 UTC MON AUG 07 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) X(36) X(36) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 49(57) X(57) X(57) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 24(34) X(34) X(34) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) MERIDA MX 34 6 24(30) 11(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MERIDA MX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 58 2(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) BELIZE CITY 34 9 3(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GUANAJA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Franklin (AT2/AL072017)
2017-08-07 22:33:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE BEFORE LANDFALL... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 the center of Franklin was located near 18.6, -85.9 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Franklin Public Advisory Number 5
2017-08-07 22:33:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 072032 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 ...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE BEFORE LANDFALL... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 85.9W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ENE OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City northward to the border of Mexico * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch may be required for a portion of the southwestern Gulf coast of Mexico this evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 85.9 West. Franklin is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will be near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening or tonight. Franklin is then expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, and into the Bay of Campeche Tuesday evening or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before the center reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and Franklin could be near hurricane intensity at landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico on Tuesday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-08-07 22:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 07 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 072032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 2100 UTC MON AUG 07 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CAMPECHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CAMPECHE TO SABANCUY A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.9W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.9W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.1N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.9N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 91.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 85.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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