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Summary for Tropical Storm Franklin (AT2/AL072017)
2017-08-08 13:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRANKLIN MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 the center of Franklin was located near 19.5, -89.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Franklin Public Advisory Number 7A
2017-08-08 13:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081156 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 700 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 ...FRANKLIN MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 89.1W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Belize has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Belize. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 89.1 West. Franklin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will continue to move across the Yucatan peninsula today, and emerge over the Bay of Campeche this evening or tonight. Franklin will then move westward across the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected while Franklin moves across the Yucatan peninsula today. Restrengthening is forecast to begin tonight and Wednesday while Franklin moves over the Bay of Campeche. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. In addition, Franklin is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts up to 15 inches through Thursday to northern Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely still occurring over portions of the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula. These conditions should spread westward across the remainder of the warning area today and diminish along the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula later this morning. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area tonight and Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-08-08 10:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080855 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 The Belize Doppler weather radar indicates that Franklin's inner-core circulation has tightened up considerably since the previous advisory, likely due to frictional convergence, and that a 10-15-nmi-diameter closed eye has developed. Radar reflectivity values have been steadily increasing in the eyewall, and this development trend is supported by infrared satellite imagery, which shows deep convection with cloud tops of -75C to -80C now completely covering the radar eye. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory based on a typical decay rate for landfalling tropical cyclones. The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt, based primarily on radar data. A deep-layer subtropical ridge that currently extends across the northern and central Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain intact through the forecast period, building slightly southward by 48 h and beyond. This entrenched steering pattern is expected to keep Franklin moving west-northwestward across the Yucatan peninsula the next 24 h or so, followed by westward motion across the Bay of Campeche until landfall occurs in 48-60 h. NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on this track scenario, and only a slight nudge to the south of the previous forecast track was required due to the more southward initial position of Franklin. Additional weakening is expected while Franklin moves across the Yucatan peninsula during the next 15 h or so. The recent inner-core structural improvements are expected to remain in place by the time the cyclone emerges over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. That, combined with low vertical shear values and a well-established outflow pattern, will allow for restrengthening to occur by Wednesday, possibly resulting in Franklin achieving hurricane status around 36-42 h. However, the GFS and ECMWF models are still forecasting significant northerly vertical shear near 20 kt to develop by 36 h and beyond, which could cap the intensification process or possibly even induce some weakening since mid-level dry air entrainment will accompany the northerly shear. However, since Franklin is expected to be near hurricane strength at landfall, a Hurricane Watch for mainland Mexico is warranted. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 19.3N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1800Z 19.7N 90.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 20.1N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 09/1800Z 20.3N 94.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 19.7N 101.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Franklin Graphics
2017-08-08 10:52:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Aug 2017 08:52:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Aug 2017 08:52:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Franklin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-08-08 10:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 08 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 080844 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 0900 UTC TUE AUG 08 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24) TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 36(45) 10(55) X(55) X(55) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 26(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FRONTERA MX 34 X 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MERIDA MX 34 5 9(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) COZUMEL MX 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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