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Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-10-19 22:37:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 192037 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 125.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Graphics
2019-10-19 19:59:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 17:59:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 15:24:34 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-19 19:59:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NESTOR MAKES LANDFALL ON ST. VINCENT ISLAND FLORIDA... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE GULF COAST OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nestor was located near 29.7, -85.1 with movement ENE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Public Advisory Number 9A
2019-10-19 19:59:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191759 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...NESTOR MAKES LANDFALL ON ST. VINCENT ISLAND FLORIDA... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE GULF COAST OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 85.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Ochlockonee River, Florida, and south of the Suwanee River, Florida. All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Suwanee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is accelerating toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this afternoon, followed by a motion toward the northeast by tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast track, Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move farther inland over the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight weakening is expected now that Nestor has moved inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center, mainly to the east of the center over Apalachee Bay and also off the Georgia coast. Offshore buoys and coastal marine observing stations along the coast of west-central Florida, including the mouth of Tampa Bay, have recently been reporting tropical-storm-force wind gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside today and tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. The warning will likely be discontinued later this afternoon. Gale-force winds are expected to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today and tonight. RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeast United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon over east-central Florida, and this afternoon and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2019-10-19 17:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 15:45:45 GMT
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