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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2019-10-19 16:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 191451 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) RALEIGH NC 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 2( 2) 37(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 17(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 7( 7) 30(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 7( 7) 32(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 8( 8) 32(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X 17(17) 24(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SURF CITY NC 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 22(22) 19(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 27(27) 16(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 26(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) FLORENCE SC 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 35(35) 8(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 39(39) 4(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 40(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 36(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) KINGS BAY GA 34 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) WAYCROSS GA 34 14 22(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GAINESVILLE FL 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ST MARKS FL 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) APALACHICOLA 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number speed wind cyclone

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Forecast Advisory Number 9

2019-10-19 16:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 191450 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 86.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 160SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 240SE 120SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 86.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.0N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.1N 79.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 36.0N 75.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 36.6N 71.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 36.4N 66.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 86.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number advisory forecast cyclone

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 5

2019-10-18 16:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 181455 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The satellite presentation of the system features an area of very deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C within the eastern part of a rather broad and elongated surface circulation seen in visible satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found flight-level winds as high as 72 kt and SFMR winds of 45-50 kt southeast of the ill-defined center, and based on these data the initial intensity is set to 50 kt. The NOAA aircraft also measured a pressure of around 1001 mb. While the cyclone has deepened, the circulation is still quite elongated and not well defined, so the system is maintained as a Potential Tropical Cyclone for now. The global models continue to indicate that the circulation will consolidate and the system will strengthen some during the next 12 hours or so, as the low-level circulation will be overtaken by an upper-level trough currently situated over southwest Louisiana. The system is still expected to become a tropical or subtropical storm later today, with the exact phase dependent on the timing of the circulation improving and the interaction with the upper trough. Once the system moves inland, it should become extratropical by 36 hours and slowly weaken once it moves offshore of the Carolinas by 72-96 hours before dissipating by day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is adjusted upward from the previous one through 24 hours based on the initial intensity and allows for the possibility of at least some additional strengthening later today. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 055/19 given the lack of a well-defined center. The track model guidance remains in good agreement on the system moving quickly northeastward toward the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next 24 hours as it interacts with the upper trough. After moving inland, a northeastward motion is forecast to continue until after 48 hours, when an east- northeastward motion is expected, which will take the circulation offshore over the Atlantic by 72 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to, but a bit to the south of the previous one and is close to the various track consensus aids. Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the northeastern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge later today and Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level beginning later today along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are likely later today and tonight along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast and the southeast United States coast through Saturday night. 4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 25.9N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0000Z 27.8N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 19/1200Z 29.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 32.2N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1200Z 34.4N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z 37.0N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1200Z 37.0N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: number discussion potential tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2019-10-18 16:51:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 14:51:26 GMT

Tags: map potential storm tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics

2019-10-18 16:50:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 14:50:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 14:50:15 GMT

Tags: potential graphics tropical sixteen

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