je.st
news
Tag: cyclone
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-10-19 23:00:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 192059 CCA TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 84.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 84.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.3N 81.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.8N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 36.5N 65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 84.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NESTOR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
cyclone
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Graphics
2019-10-19 22:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 20:42:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 20:42:36 GMT
Tags: graphics
cyclone
nestor
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-10-19 22:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 192041 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor made landfall along on St. Vincent Island, Florida, around 1730 UTC. Since then, that center has moved inland over the Florida Panhandle between Apalachicola and Tallahassee. However, during the past hour, a new center appears to have formed farther west along a quasi-occluded frontal boundary. The earlier 40-45 kt winds over water have moved inland and weakened, and the initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a recent wind report of a sustained wind of 33 kt at 5-meters elevation from NOAA buoy 41008/Gray's Reef, Georgia. The initial motion estimate is now northeastward or 055/20 kt. Nestor is forecast to move northeastward over the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the east once the cyclone reaches the North Carolina Outer Banks. On days 2 an 3, upper-level support is expected to weaken and lift out to the northeast, leaving a weakening extratropical cyclone Nestor behind. The cyclone should then dissipate or merge with another frontal system by 96 h offshore of the U.S. east coast. The new official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the center of the tightly packed model guidance envelope. Some slight strengthening is expected on Sunday, mainly due to the robust circulation moving out over the warm waters of the far western Atlantic where less friction will affect the cyclone. The official intensity foreast closely follows an average of the 1200 UTC GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global model intensity forecasts. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. Key Messages: 1. Gale-force winds will gradually develop over the Atlantic waters and along the coasts northeastern Florida and Georgia tonight, and spread northward to the Carolinas on Sunday. 2. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern United States into Sunday. 3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 30.4N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 20/0600Z 32.3N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 36.8N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z 36.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
cyclone
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-19 22:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nestor was located near 30.4, -84.1 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
cyclone
nestor
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Public Advisory Number 10
2019-10-19 22:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 192041 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 84.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Gulf coast of Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 84.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move across portions of the southeastern United States tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with some slight strengthening possible Sunday night and Monday when Post-Tropical Nestor moves over the western Atlantic. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km), east of the center over Atlantic waters just offshore the Georgia coast. The NOAA buoy at Gray's Reef, Georgia, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern United States. WIND: Gale-force winds will develop along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today and tonight. TORNADOES: A tornado remains possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and coastal Georgia this afternoon and early evening, with a few tornadoes possible tonight through Sunday morning across the coastal Carolinas. STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside through tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
advisory
cyclone
Sites : [119] [120] [121] [122] [123] [124] [125] [126] [127] [128] [129] [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] [136] [137] [138] next »