je.st
news
Tag: cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 4A
2017-08-30 19:55:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 301755 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 1200 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 ...FOURTEEN-E COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 108.6W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to east of La Paz A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to La Paz A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * west of La Paz to Loreto * mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Huatabampito A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of the large disturbance was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 108.6 West. The system has been stationary recently, but it expected to move slowly toward the north-northwest during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance will be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by late Thursday, and near or west of Baja California Sur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by tonight, and it could become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday. The disturbance appears to be forming a better defined center, and only a small increase in organization would lead to the formation of a tropical depression or storm. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days... high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in mainland Mexico starting late on Thursday, and in the watch area in Baja California Sur on Friday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur and western Jalisco, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches. In the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima, southern Michoacan, southern Sonora and central Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected. This rain could cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and east of the center over the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico. These swells will likely reach the southern portions of Baja California Sur later today, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
potential
advisory
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Graphics
2017-08-30 16:42:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 14:42:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 15:40:30 GMT
Tags: potential
graphics
tropical
cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-08-30 16:37:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 301437 TCDEP4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 The potential tropical cyclone has not become any better organized overnight, though available data indicate that the pressures continue to fall and that the winds have increased to 30 kt. It appears that there are two centers in the broad circulation, and the NHC position uses a mean center. Only slow strengthening is forecast today due to the disorganized surface circulation, but a more significant intensification could start tomorrow. If the circulation consolidates, the upper-level winds and water temperatures are very conducive to strengthening. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, just a bit above the model consensus. Because the system is forecast to be approaching hurricane strength as it nears Baja California Sur, the hurricane watch is maintained. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should weaken while it traverses either land or the cooler waters west of the Baja peninsula. As before, with the lack of a definite center the initial motion is quite uncertain, with the current estimate at 335/8 kt. For the next couple of days, the system/tropical cyclone is expected to move slowly north-northwestward on the eastern end of a broad mid-level cyclonic gyre. In 3-5 days the motion should bend toward the northwest and west-northwest due to a mid-level ridge to the north. Model guidance has shifted a bit to the east today, and the official forecast is adjusted in that direction. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the west coast of Mexico due to the changes in the forecast. Since the disturbance still lacks a well-defined center and there is considerable spread in the model guidance, this official track forecast has greater-than-usual uncertainty. It is also important to note that very heavy rain causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides is possible over portions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur. Regardless of exactly how strong the cyclone becomes, this is expected to be a significant hazard. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 19.3N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/0000Z 20.4N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 31/1200Z 21.4N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 22.3N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 23.4N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 25.4N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 27.5N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 28.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
potential
tropical
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142017)
2017-08-30 16:36:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED.... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 19.3, -108.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
potential
tropical
cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-08-30 16:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 301436 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO EAST OF LA PAZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LA PAZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LA PAZ TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ON THE MAINLAND FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO EAST OF LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF LA PAZ TO LORETO * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.6W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.6W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.4N 109.2W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N 109.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.3N 109.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.4N 110.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.4N 112.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 27.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 28.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
potential
advisory
tropical
Sites : [289] [290] [291] [292] [293] [294] [295] [296] [297] [298] [299] [300] [301] [302] [303] [304] [305] [306] [307] [308] next »