je.st
news
Tag: cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 5
2017-08-30 22:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 302035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 ...VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 108.8W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Huatabampito, for the east coast of Baja California Sur from west of La Paz to San Evaristo, and for the west coast of Baja California Sur from north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of Baja California Sur from north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to east of La Paz A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to San Evaristo * mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from north of San Evaristo to Loreto * north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 108.8 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance or the tropical cyclone will be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by late Thursday, and near Baja California Sur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the system could still become a hurricane before landfall. The disturbance appears to be developing a better defined center, and only a small increase in organization would lead to the formation of a tropical depression or storm. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days... high...near 100 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur and western Jalisco, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches. In the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima, southern Michoacan, southern Sonora and central Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected. These rains are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the warning area in mainland Mexico starting late on Thursday, and in the watch areas in Baja California Sur on Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and east of the center over the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico. These swells will reach the southern portions of Baja California Sur later today, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
potential
advisory
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-08-30 22:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 302035 PWSEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) 1(23) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25(30) 4(34) X(34) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 45(48) 27(75) 5(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 8( 8) 22(30) 4(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 42(44) 30(74) 6(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 5( 5) 19(24) 4(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 1 10(11) 33(44) 22(66) 8(74) X(74) X(74) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 30(56) 2(58) X(58) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) X(19) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 3(25) X(25) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 3(29) X(29) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 16(29) 1(30) X(30) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 14(24) 10(34) 1(35) X(35) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 3(19) X(19) 1(20) ISLAS MARIAS 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MAZATLAN 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 11 13(24) 2(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 2(16) X(16) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
potential
speed
wind
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-08-30 22:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 302035 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO... FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM WEST OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO... AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO EAST OF LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO SAN EVARISTO * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO * NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.8W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.8W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.0N 109.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.3N 110.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.0N 113.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 28.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 29.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
potential
advisory
tropical
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Graphics
2017-08-30 19:56:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 17:56:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 15:40:30 GMT
Tags: potential
graphics
tropical
cyclone
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142017)
2017-08-30 19:55:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FOURTEEN-E COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.... As of 12:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 19.3, -108.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
potential
tropical
cyclone
Sites : [288] [289] [290] [291] [292] [293] [294] [295] [296] [297] [298] [299] [300] [301] [302] [303] [304] [305] [306] [307] next »