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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Advisory Number 9
2017-08-29 22:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 292031 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 74.3W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 74.3W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 75.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 37.6N 70.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 39.3N 65.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 90SE 120SW 130NW. 34 KT...230NE 260SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 40.9N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 0SE 120SW 150NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 160SW 180NW. 34 KT...250NE 340SE 320SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 42.8N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 140SW 160NW. 34 KT...250NE 360SE 320SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 47.4N 41.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 360SE 310SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 52.0N 25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 74.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 9
2017-08-29 22:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 292031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 74.3W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All tropical storm warnings for the coast of North Carolina have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal tropical watches or warnings in effect. High wind warnings are in effect for coastal portions of northeastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the eastern shore of Virginia and Maryland through this evening. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered off the coast of North Carolina near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 74.3 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and it is expected to accelerate further toward the northeast and east-northeast during the next couple of days. The disturbance will continue to move away from the North Carolina coast over the western Atlantic Ocean tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen at sea and become a hurricane-force extratropical low over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday evening. The system is not expected to become a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Strong winds, with gusts up to 55 mph, are expected across coastal portions of northeastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the eastern shore of Virginia and Maryland through this evening. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from the southeast Virginia coast into the Delmarva through Wednesday. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coasts during the next day or so, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2017-08-29 22:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 292031 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 23(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BOSTON MA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-29 19:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 17:35:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 15:33:28 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-29 19:34:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 the center of Ten was located near 35.3, -75.8 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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