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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-08-29 16:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 291436 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) CHERRY PT NC 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NEW RIVER NC 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MOREHEAD CITY 34 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) SURF CITY NC 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Advisory Number 8
2017-08-29 16:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 291436 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT...NORTH CAROLINA SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK * ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 77.2W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 77.2W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.6N 73.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 38.8N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 40.4N 63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT...100NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 130SW 150NW. 34 KT...240NE 310SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 41.8N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 180SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 420SE 350SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 45.8N 45.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 390SE 330SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 51.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 77.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-29 13:45:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 11:45:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 09:32:46 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-29 13:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD PAST CAPE FEAR... As of 8:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 the center of Ten was located near 34.1, -77.7 with movement NE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 7A
2017-08-29 13:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 291142 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD PAST CAPE FEAR... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 77.7W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from Surf City to Little River Inlet has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 77.7 West. The system is moving faster toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and is anticipated to accelerate east-northeastward during the next couple of days. The expected track will take the system along the North Carolina coast today before moving out to sea tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength today, and the chances for the system to become a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected over portions of North Carolina later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 5 inches along the northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia coasts into the Delmarva through Wednesday. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coasts during the next day or so, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible through midday along the North Carolina coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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