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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-29 11:11:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 09:11:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 09:32:46 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-08-29 11:01:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290901 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 The disturbance has developed a center that has been trackable this evening though it is still not well-defined, since it appears to be considerably elongated northeast-southwest. The disturbance continues to display very cold, but extremely asymmetric deep convection with all of the thunderstorm activity east of the center due to strong vertical shear. Moreover, the convection is showing no identifiable banding features. So the system is not yet a tropical cyclone. Regardless of the label we use to describe this hybrid system, maximum winds are around 35 kt based upon a Dvorak classification from TAFB and observed winds just below that from the NDBC Buoy 41013. The initial motion of the disturbance is northeast at a faster rate of about 10 kt. Continued acceleration is expected during the next couple of days as a mid- to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes moves closer to the system. The NHC forecast track takes the disturbance across the North Carolina coastline today. By tonight, the cyclone is forecast to move offshore and accelerate over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is not substantially changed from the previous advisory. Given the poor organization of the disturbance and the strong wind shear environment that it is embedded within, the chances of this disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone have decreased to about a coin flip. Nonetheless, the potential impacts of tropical-storm- force winds across portions of North Carolina are likely today even if the system does not become a tropical cyclone. The system is expected to become extratropical in 24 hours or less when it interacts with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough. Significant strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is forecast for a couple of days due to baroclinic forcing. No significant change has been made to the NHC intensity forecast. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 24 to 120 h are based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 33.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/1800Z 35.4N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 38.0N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1800Z 39.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0600Z 41.0N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0600Z 44.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0600Z 50.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0600Z 55.0N 19.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-29 10:59:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL BORDER... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 the center of Ten was located near 33.5, -78.5 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 7
2017-08-29 10:59:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290859 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 ...DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL BORDER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 78.5W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from South Santee River to Little River Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area later today. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 78.5 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and is anticipated to turn toward the east-northeast and accelerate during the next couple of days. The expected track will take the system along the North Carolina coast today before moving out to sea tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength today and the chances for the system to become a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected over portions of North Carolina later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours... medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area this afternoon and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later this morning. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 5 inches along northeastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia coasts into the Delmarva through Wednesday. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coasts during the next day or so, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible through midday along the North Carolina coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-08-29 10:59:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 290859 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 12(32) X(32) X(32) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 4 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 12 9(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ROCKY MT NC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 42 14(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CAPE HATTERAS 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 30 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEW RIVER NC 34 46 X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MOREHEAD CITY 34 40 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SURF CITY NC 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WILMINGTON NC 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) LITTLE RIVER 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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