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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-08-29 22:46:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292046 TCDEP4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Satellite images indicate that the large disturbance southwest of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. While the system still lacks a well-defined center, all indications are that it will become a tropical storm tomorrow. Since the system is forecast to bring tropical-storm-force winds to Baja California Sur within 36 hours, advisories are being initiated on a potential tropical cyclone. The system has 2-3 days over very warm water with decreasing shear. Although the system is quite broad for the moment, the favorable environmental conditions noted above should allow for at least steady strengthening. Thus, the official forecast is higher than the model consensus, but lower than the bullish SHIPS model. The initial motion is a highly uncertain 315/8. A weak ridge over central Mexico should steer the cyclone to the northwest or north- northwest for the next few days. Thereafter, the system should turn toward the west-northwest as it moves around a stronger ridge over the southwestern United States. While there is some spread in the guidance, the models are in reasonable agreement for a first forecast, taking the system near or just west of Baja California Sur. The official NHC track prediction is between the model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus model HCCA. It is important to note that outside the watch/warning area, very heavy rain is possible, which could cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides over southwestern Mexico. In addition, wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along the coast of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco states tonight into early Wednesday due to the large circulation. The National Hurricane Center now has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy this was not possible. These systems are known as Potential Tropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered from the same list as depressions. Because of the threat to Baja California Sur, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E and the appropriate watches and warnings have been issued by the government of Mexico. Advisory packages will continue until the threat of tropical-storm-force winds for land areas sufficiently diminishes, although if the system becomes a tropical cyclone, the normal rules for discontinuing advisories would apply. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 17.2N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/0600Z 18.1N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 31/0600Z 20.4N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 21.4N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 25.0N 114.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 26.5N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-08-29 22:44:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 292044 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.1N 108.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.4N 109.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.4N 110.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 26.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-29 22:37:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 20:37:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 20:37:45 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-08-29 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 292032 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Visible satellite images indicate that a more well-defined circulation has begun to form east of the Outer Banks, and surface observations indicate that pressures are falling. The low is becoming extratropical, and there is no longer a possibility of it becoming a tropical cyclone. In addition, the associated tropical-storm-force winds that have been occurring to the southeast of the center are limited to marine areas, so this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. Maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt to the southeast of the center. Baroclinic influences are expected to cause the low to deepen as an extratropical cyclone during the next day or two, and it is forecast to produce sustained hurricane-force winds over the northwestern Atlantic by late Wednesday. Gradual weakening is forecast after 36 hours, and the cyclone is likely to be absorbed by another extratropical system over the north Atlantic by day 5. The low continues to accelerate toward the northeast with an initial motion of 050/21 kt, and it should move even faster toward the northeast or east-northeast across the north Atlantic through day 4, embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts incorporate guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. Strong winds on the northern and western side of a frontal boundary associated with the low are expected to affect portions of the mid-Atlantic coast. As a result, high wind warnings are in effect for coastal sections of northeastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the eastern shore of Virginia and Maryland through this evening. This is the last advisory issued by NHC, and additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 36.0N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 37.6N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1800Z 39.3N 65.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0600Z 40.9N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1800Z 42.8N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z 47.4N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z 52.0N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-29 22:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 the center of Ten was located near 36.0, -74.3 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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