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Remnants of Sergio Graphics
2018-10-12 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 20:33:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 21:33:53 GMT
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Remnants of Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 54
2018-10-12 22:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 122032 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Sergio Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 The center of Sergio moved over the high terrain of northwestern Mexico and no longer has a well-defined circulation center. On this basis, NHC has issued the last advisory on this system. The remnants of Sergio will move toward the northeast about 22 kt and could still produce gusty winds in heavy squalls. Sergio's remnants will continue to produce heavy rains which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in northwestern Mexico. Flash flooding is also possible across the U.S. Desert Southwest and the Southern Plains through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 29.3N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF SERGIO 12H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Remnants of Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 54
2018-10-12 22:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 122031 PWSEP1 REMNANTS OF SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF SERGIO WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Remnants of Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-12 22:30:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 the center of Sergio was located near 29.3, -109.8 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Remnants of Sergio Public Advisory Number 54
2018-10-12 22:30:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 122030 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Sergio Advisory Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...SERGIO DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 109.8W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Sergio were located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 109.8 West. The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue until dissipation tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Sergio will likely produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over northwestern Mexico. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Avila
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