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Remnants of Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-09-20 10:31:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018 515 WTPZ24 KNHC 200831 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 110.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 110.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 110.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Remnants of Isaac Graphics
2018-09-15 10:42:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 08:42:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 08:42:44 GMT
Remnants of Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 31
2018-09-15 10:41:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 559 WTNT44 KNHC 150841 TCDAT4 Remnants Of Isaac Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Isaac over the past few hours and was unable to identify a well-defined center. The plane found multiple small and poorly-defined circulations embedded within a larger area of weak and variable winds, well to the south of the previous estimated center location. The plane also found that the minimum pressure has risen to around 1006 mb. All of this data confirmed what two late-arriving ASCAT overpasses from earlier this evening indicated, that Isaac has opened up into a southwest to northeast oriented trough. Since Isaac does not have a well-defined center, it no longer meets the NHC definition of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory. The strongest SFMR winds found by the plane were around 30 kt, mainly to the north of the deep convection, so the intensity has been set at that value. Although some of the regional hurricane models suggest that small short-lived circulations like the ones found by the plane could temporarily spin up within the larger envelope of the tropical wave over the next several days, none of the dynamical models currently show any significant redevelopment of Isaac. The wave will likely continue westward across the Caribbean Sea over the next few days, producing gusty winds and occasional heavy rains over portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica. This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Isaac. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available online at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 14.8N 70.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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isaac
Remnants of Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2018-09-15 10:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 563 FONT14 KNHC 150840 PWSAT4 REMNANTS OF ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Remnants of Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-15 10:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATES ISAAC HAS DISSIPATED... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 the center of Isaac was located near 14.8, -70.8 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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