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Remnants of Nineteen-E Graphics
2018-09-20 10:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Sep 2018 08:33:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Sep 2018 09:20:33 GMT
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nineteene
Remnants of Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-20 10:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018 126 WTPZ44 KNHC 200832 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Nineteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018 A pair of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that the center of the depression had moved inland over the Mexican state of Sonora, with winds as high as 25 kt still occurring over the Gulf of California. The associated deep convection has taken on a more linear pattern as it has pushed farther inland across northwestern Mexico, and it is unlikely that the system still has a closed surface circulation over the rough terrain. As such, the depression is deemed to have dissipated, and this is the last advisory on this system. Winds over the Gulf of California should quickly diminish during the next 6-12 hours. Moisture associated with the remnants of the depression will continue to pose a heavy rainfall and flooding threat over the next couple of days. Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated amounts up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rains will also lead to a heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States today and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. For information on the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding, please consult statements from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 28.1N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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remnants
Summary for Remnants of Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192018)
2018-09-20 10:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 28.1, -110.0 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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remnants
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ep4ep192018
Remnants of Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 4
2018-09-20 10:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018 050 WTPZ34 KNHC 200831 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Nineteen-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018 ...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 110.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States monitor the progress of the remnants of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E for the continued threat of heavy rainfall and flooding. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Nineteen-E were located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 110.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). Moisture associated with the remnants should move northeastward across northwestern Mexico and into the southwestern and south-central United States over the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly over the Gulf of California. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of the depression are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Sonora and northern Sinaloa, and 2 to 4 inches in western Chihuahua. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in Sonora and northern Sinaloa. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the remnants of the depression will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States today, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Remnants of Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-09-20 10:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018 026 FOPZ14 KNHC 200831 PWSEP4 REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BERG
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