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Remnants of Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 30

2018-10-02 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 646 WTPZ25 KNHC 021434 TCMEP5 REMNANTS OF ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 114.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 114.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 114.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ROSA $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Remnants of Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30

2018-10-02 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 614 FOPZ15 KNHC 021434 PWSEP5 REMNANTS OF ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF ROSA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS... 30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P PENASCO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Remnants of Kirk Graphics

2018-09-29 04:43:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 02:43:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 03:21:55 GMT

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Remnants of Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 21

2018-09-29 04:42:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 900 WTNT42 KNHC 290242 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Kirk Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 Even though there still appears to be a circulation center in satellite imagery, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane was unable to find westerly winds that would support a closed circulation. Therefore, Kirk has degenerated into an open wave, and this will be the last advisory. The SFMR on the plane still measured winds around 35 kt in the convection to the east of the wave axis, and that will remain the initial intensity. The wave will continue moving westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next few days, with its winds gradually decreasing due to continued westerly shear. Heavy rains are still possible over portions of eastern Puerto Rico and St. Croix during the next day or two while Kirk's remnants pass to the south. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 15.1N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Remnants of Kirk (AT2/AL122018)

2018-09-29 04:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...KIRK BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 28 the center of Kirk was located near 15.1, -65.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tags: summary kirk remnants at2al122018

 

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