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Remnants of Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 54
2018-10-12 22:30:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 122030 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 109.8W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 109.8W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 109.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Remnants of Rosa Graphics
2018-10-02 16:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 14:36:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 15:34:10 GMT
Remnants of Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 30
2018-10-02 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 761 WTPZ45 KNHC 021434 TCDEP5 Remnants Of Rosa Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Rosa has become an elongated trough with multiple swirls along its axis. Therefore, Rosa no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory issued on this system by the National Hurricane Center. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt assuming some decrease in winds from the ASCAT pass last night. Although Rosa has dissipated, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are expected to continue over portions of northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest during the next day or so. For more information on the rainfall threat, please see products from your local NWS forecast office and Storm Summary products issued by the Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 29.7N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Remnants of Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-10-02 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA DISSIPATES BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 2 the center of Rosa was located near 29.7, -114.2 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Remnants of Rosa Public Advisory Number 30
2018-10-02 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 647 WTPZ35 KNHC 021434 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Remnants Of Rosa Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 ...ROSA DISSIPATES BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 114.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Rosa were located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 114.2 West. The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and they are expected to move over the Desert Southwest by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations into Wednesday: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For more information please see products issued by your local NWS forecast office and Storm Summary products issued by the Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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