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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-08-18 22:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 831 WTPZ44 KNHC 182033 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Lane remains an impressive hurricane in geostationary satellite imagery. The distinct 15 nmi-wide eye is surrounded by a ring of convection with clouds tops around -65 to -70C. The clouds tops have warmed slightly but the subjective and objective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers are unchanged so the initial intensity is maintained at 120 kt for this advisory. The hurricane continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the north of Lane should keep the hurricane on a west-northwestward to westward heading during the next 24 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward which is expected to take Lane on a more westward course between 36 and 72 hours. By day 4, Lane will be approaching the western portion of the ridge which should result in a turn back toward the west-northwest. The lastest iterations of the UKMET and GFS models have shifted southward but remain along the northern side of the guidance envelope. Meanwhile, the ECMWF remains along the southern side of the guidance and also depicts a much faster forward speed. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly southward to be near the latest consensus aids. The intensity forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous advisory. Lane will be moving over SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius throughout the forecast period, but some west to northwesterly vertical shear is expected to affect the hurricane. As a result, gradually weakening is indicated in the official forecast over the next few days. A more significant increase in shear late in the forecast period could result in a faster rate of weakening at days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance during the first 24 to 48 hours, and then is closest to the HFIP corrected consensus later in the period. Lane will move into the Central Pacific Basin very soon and this is last NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Lane can be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC), under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, WMO header WTPA32 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 12.5N 139.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 12.9N 141.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 13.4N 143.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 13.7N 145.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 13.9N 147.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 14.1N 151.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 14.8N 154.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 15.9N 158.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Lane (EP4/EP142018)
2018-08-18 22:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LANE POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 the center of Lane was located near 12.5, -139.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
Hurricane Lane Public Advisory Number 16
2018-08-18 22:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 292 WTPZ34 KNHC 182032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 ...LANE POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 139.7W ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 139.7 West. Lane is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a motion between west and west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Lane will cross into the central Pacific basin within the next couple of hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday, however, Lane is forecast to remain a major hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Lane. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, WMO header WTPA32 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Lane Graphics
2018-08-18 16:53:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 14:53:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 15:22:00 GMT
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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-08-18 16:51:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 974 WTPZ44 KNHC 181451 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Lane's inner-core convective organization has continued to improve with satellite intensity estimates vacillating between T6.0/115 kt and T6.5/127 kt during the past 6 hours. The 15-nmi-diameter eye remains quiet distinct and is embedded within a solid ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. An average of the various intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON support increasing the intensity to 120 kt. The initial motion estimate is 285/13 kt. There has been little change in the models over the past couple of days, and the latest NHC guidance, especially the consensus track models, required no significant changes to the previous advisory track. The large expansive subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane is forecast to remain intact and gradually build westward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands throughout the 120-h forecast period. As a result, Lane is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so, and then turn westward by day 3, maintaining that motion on days 4 and 5. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus models. On the forecast track, Hurricane Lane is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin in about 9 hours at around 0000 UTC. Although Lane will be remaining over 27.0-27.5 deg C SSTs during the forecast period, increasing westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear to around 15 kt, along with a slightly drier mid-level environment, is expected to induce slow but steady weakening by 24 hours. Although Lane could strengthen a little more before the prolonged weakening begins, the general intensity trend should be downward. However, the rate of weakening is held a little above the intensity guidance owing to the warmer SSTs indicated by raw data than what the SHIPS model guidance is using. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 12.3N 138.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.8N 140.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.4N 142.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 13.8N 144.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 14.1N 146.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 14.5N 150.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 14.9N 153.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 15.8N 157.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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