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Summary for Hurricane Lane (EP4/EP142018)

2018-08-17 04:42:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...LANE BECOMES THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 PACIFIC SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 the center of Lane was located near 11.2, -129.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Lane Public Advisory Number 9

2018-08-17 04:42:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 217 WTPZ34 KNHC 170242 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 ...LANE BECOMES THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 PACIFIC SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 129.8W ABOUT 1540 MI...2475 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 129.8 West. Lane is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion between west-northwest and west is expected during the next few days, and Lane is forecast to cross over into the central Pacific basin on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected for the next 36 to 48 hours, and Lane is forecast to become a major hurricane by Saturday. Little change in strength is expected on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Lane Forecast Advisory Number 9

2018-08-17 04:42:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 216 WTPZ24 KNHC 170242 TCMEP4 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 129.8W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 129.8W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 129.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.5N 131.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.0N 134.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.5N 137.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.4N 145.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 15.2N 149.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 15.6N 153.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 129.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2018-08-17 04:42:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 234 FOPZ14 KNHC 170242 PWSEP4 HURRICANE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 9(47) 1(48) X(48) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 69(70) 11(81) X(81) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 14(52) X(52) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 11(34) X(34) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 49(50) 19(69) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 16(38) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 32(41) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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